President Joe Biden's hopes of bolstering his job approval numbers by passing his spending packages soon may be diminished as Democrats disagree on what should be in their sweeping partisan social welfare and climate proposal — as well as how to pay for it.© Provided by Washington Examiner
But even if Democrats coalesce behind a social welfare and climate measure after months of stalled negotiations and missed deadlines, some strategists, pollsters, and presidential historians are skeptical it will permanently boost Biden's popularity.
For pollster Charles Franklin, legislative success can elevate presidential job approval ratings, but "it can't work miracles."
Franklin referenced former President Donald Trump's efforts to repeal and replace Obamacare. Trump's approval fell to 37% when he failed, a first-year low, according to the director of battleground state Wisconsin's Marquette Law School Poll. The former president's numbers then rose to 42% in December 2017 after Congress cleared his tax reforms.
"Having a 'success' is helpful, and a 5-point recovery is significant, but it is unlikely to return approval to Biden's June and July levels [of] about 52%," Franklin said. "[It] could get him to the high 40s rather than the low 40s."
For Republican pollster Whit Ayres, the social welfare and climate package alone would also not restore Biden's approval because the drop was caused by multiple factors.
Ayres, the president of North Star Opinion Research, listed the COVID-19 pandemic, a sluggish post-lockdown economy, the "unresolved" illegal migrant situation at the southern border, and the troop withdrawal from Afghanistan "fiasco" as other explanations for Biden's polling dip.
"The ultimate problem is that he presented himself as someone who is competent at the job and knows how the system works, and the system doesn't seem to be working," he said.
But Ayres agreed with Democratic strategists who told the Washington Examiner the spending measure disarray would not irrevocably damage Biden's presidency if the party eventually brokered an accord. If not, it could create "a huge headwind" for Democrats before the 2022 midterm elections, he warned.
"The president's job approval is one of the best predictors of his party's performance in the midterms. And if Biden's approval stays down in the low forties, that's a real problem for other Democratic candidates next year," he said. "A president at 60% job approval has a lot more political juice than one at 40%."
Historian David Pietrusza contended presidential polling fluctuates. A 1934 Digest survey found 69% of respondents approved of Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal, but two years later 38% provided researchers with the same response, according to Pietrusza. Roosevelt went on to win 46 states that fall.
"I would caution today's Republicans to hold off hiring the bands for any victory dances until actual victories are achieved," Pietrusza said.
"The answer to whether passage of Biden's spending package would assist his polling numbers is both maybe yes and maybe no," Pietrusza added. "Maybe yes in the short term because it may somewhat mollify free-spending Democratic progressives as well as independents concerned about the basic competence of the administration. Maybe no in the long term if it fuels inflation and further dislocates the economy."
Fellow presidential historian Craig Shirley diverged. Barring some "cataclysmic" event, such as a depression or war, Biden’s approval will continue to decline and not "bottom out" and "then climb," according to the Reagan biographer.
"Biden’s spending packages won’t work because they are supported only by his base and that’s not enough. He already has them," he said. "Job approvals are all. If you don’t have support, you might as well spend your time going to funerals."
The White House defended Biden's social welfare and climate package Wednesday as reports emerged some of the programs he campaigned, such as federal paid family medical leave, were being ditched to reduce the measure's price tag and satisfy holdout Democrats.
Press secretary Jen Psaki described the package as "historic" more than a dozen times during her last briefing before Biden departs on his second foreign trip on Thursday, despite the lack of clarity regarding its provisions.
"To be fair 1. largest investment in addressing the climate crisis (more than 5 times larger than the Recovery Act which is the current #1), 2. making pre-k universal and free 3. making paid family and medical leave a reality are all historic (but open to other adjectives)," she later tweeted.
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Original Author: Naomi Lim
Source : https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/bidens-spending-packages-may-not-save-his-job-approval-numbers-politicos-say/ar-AAQ1Ori1250